Model for predicting rainfall by fuzzy set theory using USDA scan data

This paper presents a fuzzy inference model for predicting rainfall using scan data from the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network Station at Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (AAMU) campus for the year 2004. The model further reflects how an expert would perceive weather conditions and apply this knowledge before inferring a rainfall. Fuzzy variables were selected based on judging patterns in individual monthly graphs for 2003 and 2004 and the influence of different variables that cause rainfall. A decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) when compared between the ith and (i 1)th day were found to have a positive relation with a rainfall (RF) occurrence in most cases. Therefore, TP and WS were used in the antecedent part of the production rules to predict rainfall (RF). Results of the model showed better performance when threshold values for: (1) relative humidity (RH) of ith day, (2) humidity increase (HI) between the ith and (i 1)th day, and (3) product (P) of decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) were introduced. The percentage of error was 12.35 when compared the calculated amount of rainfall with actual amount of rainfall. Published by Elsevier B.V. avai lable at www.sc iencedi rec t .com journal homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate /agwat